Every April Dr. William Gray rolls out his prediction of the coming hurricane season and every year news organizations trumpet his predictions like a TV preacher predicting the end times. However, many Florida tourism related businesses believe his predictions are more about Dr. Gray’s ego and his desire to appear on camera.
2010 Hurricane Season
This year, Dr. Gray and Colorado State University are predicting 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 4 intense category 3 or higher hurricanes. The average season has 9.6 named storms, 5.9 hurricanes and 2.3 intense category 3 or higher storms according to Dr. Grey and his data for 1950-2000.
Dr. Gray’s Track Record for the Last 5 Years
Checking the predictions Dr. Grey has made for the last five years shows that it appears he generally makes predictions based on the averages with only minor adjustments for current climate conditions. His predictions for the 2005 season were so incorrectly low that it may have impacted his 2006 predictions, which were incorrectly high. Other years were close to the average, but still can’t be considered accurate. Dr. Gray updates his predictions throughout the season, which gives him the ability to appear more accurate get more TV face time.
| 2009 Hurricane Season | Predicted by Dr. Gray | Actual Storms |
| Total storms | 12 | 9 |
| Hurricanes | 6 | 3 |
| Major hurricanes (Cat 3+) | 2 | 2 |
| 2008 Hurricane Season | Predicted by Dr. Gray | Actual Storms |
| Total storms | 15 | 16 |
| Hurricanes | 8 | 8 |
| Major hurricanes (Cat 3+) | 4 | 5 |
| 2007 Hurricane Season | Predicted by Dr. Gray | Actual Storms |
| Total storms | 17 | 15 |
| Hurricanes | 9 | 6 |
| Major hurricanes (Cat 3+) | 5 | 2 |
| 2006 Hurricane Season | Predicted by Dr. Gray | Actual Storms |
| Total storms | 17 | 10 |
| Hurricanes | 9 | 5 |
| Major hurricanes (Cat 3+) | 5 | 2 |
| 2005 Hurricane Season | Predicted by Dr. Gray | Actual Storms |
| Total storms | 13 | 28 (record high) |
| Hurricanes | 7 | 15 (record high) |
| Major hurricanes (Cat 3+) | 3 | 7 |
Source Wikipedia 09,08,07,06,05 hurricane seasons and Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University.
After reviewing his track record, I must ask, why do so many put so much credibility in his predictions. His predictions cost Florida cruise ports and beach towns millions of dollars based on his predictions. It’s time for news organizations publish his track record every time he makes his dire predictions.